Amidst a resurgence of old-style nationalism, new countries are in the pipeline to be created (e.g. Kurdistan) and old countries will fall apart. National strife is to be expected soon, starting probably within next year (2017). I project the following probability for the following political entities to officially disintegrate by 2024: Ukraine (99%) Syria (99%) Iraq (99%) Turkey (96%), USA (86%) -roughly along borders of last civil war- and EU (98%) - the core of EU could retreat Northwards and in this case a new political conglomeration can gradually shape around the Mediterranean. Switzerland will remain relatively affluent and function again as a global treasury for the flow of capitals that will increasingly be involved in both the conventional (military) operations and the financial and telecommunication hostilities. A global scale East vs West confrontation will occur starting 2017. In the southern hemisphere the pattern is inverse with Autralia in support of the West and  much of south America in support of the East . However, the capital that will be obliterated- and resolve in this manner the ongoing overaccumulation crisis-  will predominantly derive from the Global North. Consequently, the Global South that will come through the conflict with respectively fewer losses. I doubt that there is a substantial risk of mutual annihilation through nuclear war; instead, the bloc of Western nuclear powers and the bloc of China -Russia will most probably continue to fight proxy wars carried out with conventional weapons. However, the ethics of war and past experience do not exclude the possibility of a non-nuclear power to be attacked in a Hiroshima-like exemplary punishment. Unfortunately, I have calculated a 55% probability for Turkey and a 35% probability for Japan to suffer a nuclear weapons attack by 2024. Moreover, a conventional warfare escalation between Iran and Saudi Arabia and between China and Japan seems inevitable. Concentration camps have already re-appeared in Europe, and it looks very likely that anti-Islamic rhetoric and practice will play a central role in western politics during the forthcoming conflict. Because of the disproportionate suffering and scape-goating of Muslim populations in the west islamophobia will be universally condemned after the dust will settle down- in the same way antisemitism became a taboo post WWII. After 2030, new economic development is expected with new ethics in place, the natural environment will be central.